Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.013100 0.014846 0.016744 0.018960 0.021478 0.024252 0.027543
2025-04-20 0.010568 0.013017 0.015911 0.019589 0.024145 0.029614 0.036691
2025-04-27 0.009146 0.011920 0.015393 0.020067 0.026210 0.034031 0.044783
2025-05-04 0.008199 0.011193 0.015117 0.020657 0.028300 0.038518 0.053283
2025-05-11 0.007220 0.010254 0.014395 0.020483 0.029244 0.041459 0.059891
2025-05-18 0.006497 0.009559 0.013892 0.020499 0.030371 0.044666 0.067098
2025-05-25 0.005813 0.008832 0.013244 0.020198 0.030952 0.047070 0.073281
2025-06-01 0.005390 0.008438 0.013029 0.020493 0.032413 0.050865 0.081894
2025-06-08 0.004923 0.007922 0.012570 0.020344 0.033135 0.053541 0.088943
2025-06-15 0.004675 0.007724 0.012576 0.020921 0.035050 0.058250 0.099729
2025-06-22 0.004199 0.007107 0.011852 0.020219 0.034763 0.059287 0.104368
2025-06-29 0.003853 0.006674 0.011386 0.019900 0.035078 0.061334 0.110907
2025-07-06 0.003459 0.006131 0.010697 0.019149 0.034599 0.062012 0.115160
2025-07-13 0.003328 0.006036 0.010777 0.019770 0.036632 0.067336 0.128506
2025-07-20 0.003186 0.005910 0.010786 0.020252 0.038444 0.072404 0.141850
2025-07-27 0.003072 0.005822 0.010854 0.020848 0.040515 0.078125 0.157013
2025-08-03 0.002865 0.005540 0.010536 0.020673 0.041070 0.080973 0.166699
2025-08-10 0.002701 0.005326 0.010328 0.020688 0.041996 0.084616 0.178349
2025-08-17 0.002514 0.005050 0.009976 0.020385 0.042242 0.086901 0.187349
2025-08-24 0.002409 0.004931 0.009923 0.020683 0.043752 0.091904 0.202676
2025-08-31 0.002265 0.004719 0.009667 0.020532 0.044296 0.094915 0.213897
2025-09-07 0.002205 0.004677 0.009753 0.021115 0.046471 0.101606 0.234066
2025-09-14 0.002028 0.004371 0.009263 0.020406 0.045733 0.101846 0.239371